The market for pharmaceuticals is expanding continuously. The reasons are obvious and mainly driven by a global population that is growing while also ageing at the same time. In addition, increased urbanization and a growing middle class, particularly in emerging markets, are making drugs available and affordable for more people and also leading to a higher global demand for medication.

As we look ahead to 2018, the pharmaceutical industry is set to grow at 6.5% per year to reach $1.06 trillion by 2022, according to data from EvaluatePharma. This growth can be largely attributed to the expansion of existing therapies such as the PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors Opdivo and Keytruda and J&J’s Darzalex, as well as the launch of novel therapies, such as Sano/Regeron’s Dupixent in atopic dermatitis and Roche’s Ocrevus in multiple sclerosis.

CAR-T therapies continue to generate interest in oncology that is unlikely to abate anytime soon with the FDA approval of the first two products: Kymriah (Novartis) and Yescarta (Gilead). AbbVie’s Humira will continue to be the leading product in the U.S. in 2022, with sales of $12 billion, and also the No. 1 global brand, with sales of $15.9 billion.

At the same time, the orphan drug market is expected to almost double, peaking at $209 billion in 2022 and further demonstrating that R&D programs are increasingly oriented towards more narrow patient populations characterized by larger unmet need and a faster route to market.

Challenges ahead include entering a second patent cliff era where top biologic blockbusters will be challenged by biosimilars. The investment of large biotech companies in this space, such as Biogen and Amgen, is likely to fast track the commercial impact of these therapies. Biologics are forecast to contribute 52% of the Top 100 product sales by 2022 with Roche leading the charge.

In the meantime, a report by Mordor Intelligence estimates that the global pharmaceutical contract manufacturing market will reach $94.38 billion by 2022, growing at little more than 6%  per year to 2022. Major factors driving the growth of contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs) in the pharmaceutical industry are the growing need for state-of-the-art processes and production technologies, which have proven to be an effective strategy for meeting regulatory requirements.

Tim Wright, Editor
twright@rodmanmedia.com